The closure pretty well sums up the state of nuclear power in the US for the last 50 years. Climate activist on one side, oil and gas on the other.
"At which point do we transition to a world where all this becomes more of a closed loop, with synthetic data and AI-annotated data replacing these humans"
Aside from the possible replication error issues, and incestuous hallucinations, there's something in my gut that tells me synthetic data may not be the boon that we are thinking it will be. Like putting a bunch of red and white balls in a jar, and expecting to reach in and pull out a pink one.
On syn data, I could argue both sides and I don't know how it'll come out.
But the idea that "oh, humans are so creative!" is kind of BS. Most people aren't very creative at all (sadly), and most of the data those models have ingested isn't exactly super creative and unique. So I could see a scenario where more syn data helps, even if there are diminishing returns.
As models get smarter, they should generate better syn data, so there's a headwind and a tailwind.
I'm with ya and agree with the oh so creative nonsense. I had that thought when I was typing out that comment.
I suppose I wonder if it will not simply cause the models to regress to the same mean as whatever intelligence is used to generate the data. And I guess from a more philosophical standpoint, errors in human behavior are still human behavior, where errors in data are errors in data.
Excellent issue. I love the variety, because I don’t want to focus my life on just one thing either! That being said, you added some background to the Doomberg article today. If you are not connected to that team, you really should be!
Great post as usual. I guess the speculation about AI pushing Nuclear wasn't far off. Reopening Three Mile Island was a surprise though.
"Pennsylvania is predicted to provide 40% of the total US gas production by 2040. Since 2014 TMI’s Unit 1 reactor has been unable to participate in the PJM market auction because the price per megawatt it offered was too high; other, cheaper providers have met the predicted demand" - https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/article/75/6/46/2844696/Why-did-the-Three-Mile-Island-Unit-1-reactor-close
The closure pretty well sums up the state of nuclear power in the US for the last 50 years. Climate activist on one side, oil and gas on the other.
"At which point do we transition to a world where all this becomes more of a closed loop, with synthetic data and AI-annotated data replacing these humans"
Aside from the possible replication error issues, and incestuous hallucinations, there's something in my gut that tells me synthetic data may not be the boon that we are thinking it will be. Like putting a bunch of red and white balls in a jar, and expecting to reach in and pull out a pink one.
On syn data, I could argue both sides and I don't know how it'll come out.
But the idea that "oh, humans are so creative!" is kind of BS. Most people aren't very creative at all (sadly), and most of the data those models have ingested isn't exactly super creative and unique. So I could see a scenario where more syn data helps, even if there are diminishing returns.
As models get smarter, they should generate better syn data, so there's a headwind and a tailwind.
I'm with ya and agree with the oh so creative nonsense. I had that thought when I was typing out that comment.
I suppose I wonder if it will not simply cause the models to regress to the same mean as whatever intelligence is used to generate the data. And I guess from a more philosophical standpoint, errors in human behavior are still human behavior, where errors in data are errors in data.
Excellent issue. I love the variety, because I don’t want to focus my life on just one thing either! That being said, you added some background to the Doomberg article today. If you are not connected to that team, you really should be!
Doomberg's great, we've DM'ed on and off for a few years. I want to get him on the pod at some point.
I haven't had a chance to read it yet -- can you elaborate on the background you mean in the context of what they wrote?
Cheers! 💚 🥃