I am vaccinated (and for the record got COVID from another vaccinated person so not so sure it does all that much in blocking the “chain”) but have to say that the marketing of the vaccines has been terrible. Take the latest strain, omicron. I heard 4 things, basically in this order: 1) asymptomatic or mild symptoms, 2) further locking down travel, 3) existing vaccines need to be modified, and 4) the best way to deal with omicron is to get the (current) vaccine. Does nobody else see the logical flaws here? This greatly erodes confidence that our leaders know what they are talking about and are actually led by “science.” I know this is an investing blog but you led with this topic.
It's indeed extremely confusing, and there's infinite number of reports saying one thing and it's opposite at any one time. Every development leads to a huge fog of war and plenty of speculation that gets amplified based on how many clicks it gets, etc..
I think this makes it particularly important to ignore the noise and find a handful of good sources that are thoughtful and knowledgeable and mostly stick to them.
We don't know yet how bad Omicron is, but we're getting more data every few days. I linked a few sources in the past, I recommend keeping an eye on these two:
The vaccines were never claimed to be 100%, just like you can still die in a car crash if you're wearing your seatbelt. But the odds are way way way better for you if you are than if you aren't. Similarly, vaccines reduce the risk of infection by a lot, and even if you have a breakthrough infection, they reduce the severity of it (it's in the range of 20-fold decrease in odds of being hospitalized... for most things we'd take a 50% improvement, so when a 2,000% one is there, let's jump on it) and reduce the viral load and how contagious the infected person is *on average* (there are exceptions to everything, and plenty of people have a compromised immune system, and the vaccine isn't magic, if your immune system can't do its part, it won't work as well).
I agree messaging has been bad and authorities have bungled quite a few things. But what people forget is the alternate timeline where we're still waiting on vaccines and delta is ripping through a fully unvaccinated planet.. The scale of the extra suffering is hard to even imagine.
It's sad to hear how far out of the way people will go to assert their "moral superiority" on not taking a vaccine. They also seem to flip flop between it being a choice to take a vax and calling you an oppressor for making a personal choice to take a vax while not harming anyone else.
On a brighter note, you should try green tea and scotch as a mixed drink, it's really good! In China green tea and whisky (usually JW black or Chivas Regal 12) is the equivalent to gin & tonic in the US.
I've heard that podcast and loved it too. The Acquired guys do such a good job AND you can tell they really are curious about all this stuff and enjoy learning about it a lot.
I def recommend that episode to those who haven't heard it and may be reading this.
I was lucky to talk to both of them on a zoom call a few weeks ago, and they're the same off-air as on the pod.
I'm slowly getting more comfortable with podcasts. Stay tuned, there will be more (planning to do an AMA if I hit 5% paid subs, and planning to be a guest on other people's pods too).
Buying the LIBERTY building to drink green tea and/or scotch. 🍵 🥃- HELL YEAH. I donate my TEA as a gift to the group, but I plan on drinking all the scotch I can get my hands on!
I am vaccinated (and for the record got COVID from another vaccinated person so not so sure it does all that much in blocking the “chain”) but have to say that the marketing of the vaccines has been terrible. Take the latest strain, omicron. I heard 4 things, basically in this order: 1) asymptomatic or mild symptoms, 2) further locking down travel, 3) existing vaccines need to be modified, and 4) the best way to deal with omicron is to get the (current) vaccine. Does nobody else see the logical flaws here? This greatly erodes confidence that our leaders know what they are talking about and are actually led by “science.” I know this is an investing blog but you led with this topic.
Hi Steve,
It's indeed extremely confusing, and there's infinite number of reports saying one thing and it's opposite at any one time. Every development leads to a huge fog of war and plenty of speculation that gets amplified based on how many clicks it gets, etc..
I think this makes it particularly important to ignore the noise and find a handful of good sources that are thoughtful and knowledgeable and mostly stick to them.
We don't know yet how bad Omicron is, but we're getting more data every few days. I linked a few sources in the past, I recommend keeping an eye on these two:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-4
https://www.theinsight.org/p/waiting-for-omicron-open-thread-1252021
The vaccines were never claimed to be 100%, just like you can still die in a car crash if you're wearing your seatbelt. But the odds are way way way better for you if you are than if you aren't. Similarly, vaccines reduce the risk of infection by a lot, and even if you have a breakthrough infection, they reduce the severity of it (it's in the range of 20-fold decrease in odds of being hospitalized... for most things we'd take a 50% improvement, so when a 2,000% one is there, let's jump on it) and reduce the viral load and how contagious the infected person is *on average* (there are exceptions to everything, and plenty of people have a compromised immune system, and the vaccine isn't magic, if your immune system can't do its part, it won't work as well).
I agree messaging has been bad and authorities have bungled quite a few things. But what people forget is the alternate timeline where we're still waiting on vaccines and delta is ripping through a fully unvaccinated planet.. The scale of the extra suffering is hard to even imagine.
It's sad to hear how far out of the way people will go to assert their "moral superiority" on not taking a vaccine. They also seem to flip flop between it being a choice to take a vax and calling you an oppressor for making a personal choice to take a vax while not harming anyone else.
On a brighter note, you should try green tea and scotch as a mixed drink, it's really good! In China green tea and whisky (usually JW black or Chivas Regal 12) is the equivalent to gin & tonic in the US.
I had never even thought of mixing the two.. I'll have to experiment, thanks for the suggestion! 💚 🥃
https://www.yamibuy.com/en/p/master-kong-honey-green-tea-500ml/1020005031 - This is what we would use to mix it, but I'm sure any sweetened green tea would work well. Unsweetened may make the drink too bitter or the alcohol might come through a bit strong. Definitely experiment!
Great letter today, L. This podcast about Morris Chang and the semi industry is pretty interesting: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2sUyRjx5GaDYXVWnhWjsRv?si=ace1af5ec098491e
The idea of decommissioning three operating nuclear facilities in California is truly - cuckoo for cocoa puffs.
Thank you Paul! 💚 🥃
I've heard that podcast and loved it too. The Acquired guys do such a good job AND you can tell they really are curious about all this stuff and enjoy learning about it a lot.
I def recommend that episode to those who haven't heard it and may be reading this.
I was lucky to talk to both of them on a zoom call a few weeks ago, and they're the same off-air as on the pod.
That's awesome. It is one of my favourite podcasts. Are you going to do more podcasts in the future?
I'm slowly getting more comfortable with podcasts. Stay tuned, there will be more (planning to do an AMA if I hit 5% paid subs, and planning to be a guest on other people's pods too).
👍 I look forward to that!
It should be fun, just hoping I have something to say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Buying the LIBERTY building to drink green tea and/or scotch. 🍵 🥃- HELL YEAH. I donate my TEA as a gift to the group, but I plan on drinking all the scotch I can get my hands on!
🤘