Another great letter, thanks I really enjoy reading them.
In terms of French nuclear, a quick look reveals that France operates their fleet at 70% capacity factor which compares to a global average of about 80%. A big difference is about 90% of France's installed capacity is nuclear, which means it must be used for load following. Nukes in other countries are operated baseload with no load-following and could explain the difference. Also it appears that the output from the French nukes has been quite stable over the past 20 years (as a percent of total generation).
Might be wrong but the data doesn't support the narrative that France is restricting output on purpose. I spent 10 minutes looking up data so very likely that I am wrong BTW.
This article describes the challenges of load-following with a nuclear plant and some of the things France has had to do to solve the problem
It would be a neat project to dig deeper into the claims, because I doubt he's just making it up, and some things may be hidden in the surface numbers and how they are calculated. But that large a project is a bit outside of what I can add to my plate right now -- I'll def try to keep learning about France's nuclear fleet and see if more answers come over time, though.
Is it possible that some plants are removed from the capacity factor numbers once they go offline for certain reasons, and that this is how the numbers could look high yet we could still have a situation where a lot more power could be produced by the fleet if they operated it differently, but they're not?
Interesting. I still feel there's a story there -- looking forward to uncovering it.
Maybe it's largely that they could export a lot more power than they do and keep their capacity factor much higher, but have made politically motivated decisions not to do so. With the size of their fleet, going from 70% to 80% or 85% would be a pretty large absolute number of energy, but it sounds like it's more than that... Will look into it at some point. Thanks
Last reply promise. Again from Wikipedia so can't confirm accuracy
"In 2019, France exported a total of 57 TWh of electricity with its neighbouring countries. Since 1990, each year, France roughly exports 10% of its annual production. Its annual exchange sold has always remained positive.[6]"
So it looks like they are net exporters. This data should also be public
I don't think so. I think that calculation should use overall output/nameplate capacity. Can't confirm how it's done though
Either way I would think it would show up in this chart (from Wikipedia) but it looks like the only real change is wind and solar picking up share (which increases the need to load-follow with nuclear).
Another great letter, thanks I really enjoy reading them.
In terms of French nuclear, a quick look reveals that France operates their fleet at 70% capacity factor which compares to a global average of about 80%. A big difference is about 90% of France's installed capacity is nuclear, which means it must be used for load following. Nukes in other countries are operated baseload with no load-following and could explain the difference. Also it appears that the output from the French nukes has been quite stable over the past 20 years (as a percent of total generation).
Might be wrong but the data doesn't support the narrative that France is restricting output on purpose. I spent 10 minutes looking up data so very likely that I am wrong BTW.
This article describes the challenges of load-following with a nuclear plant and some of the things France has had to do to solve the problem
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx#:~:text=France's%20nuclear%20reactors%20comprise%2090,standards%2C%20at%20about%2070%25.
Interesting, thank you Brent.
It would be a neat project to dig deeper into the claims, because I doubt he's just making it up, and some things may be hidden in the surface numbers and how they are calculated. But that large a project is a bit outside of what I can add to my plate right now -- I'll def try to keep learning about France's nuclear fleet and see if more answers come over time, though.
Thanks again for the great comments! Cheers 💚 🥃
Thanks for the great work.
As I mentioned, definitely not an expert but the claim would need to be explained using only a few variables:
-capacity factor
-forced outage rate
-planned outage rate
Compare them to their own past results as well as global averages. This data is typically public.
Is it possible that some plants are removed from the capacity factor numbers once they go offline for certain reasons, and that this is how the numbers could look high yet we could still have a situation where a lot more power could be produced by the fleet if they operated it differently, but they're not?
Also, any time they're not available it should show up as either forced outage or planned outage. Which we should see in the data
Interesting. I still feel there's a story there -- looking forward to uncovering it.
Maybe it's largely that they could export a lot more power than they do and keep their capacity factor much higher, but have made politically motivated decisions not to do so. With the size of their fleet, going from 70% to 80% or 85% would be a pretty large absolute number of energy, but it sounds like it's more than that... Will look into it at some point. Thanks
Last reply promise. Again from Wikipedia so can't confirm accuracy
"In 2019, France exported a total of 57 TWh of electricity with its neighbouring countries. Since 1990, each year, France roughly exports 10% of its annual production. Its annual exchange sold has always remained positive.[6]"
So it looks like they are net exporters. This data should also be public
I will likely dig into this some more myself. I'll keep you posted if I come up with anything noteworthy. Please do the same.
I don't think so. I think that calculation should use overall output/nameplate capacity. Can't confirm how it's done though
Either way I would think it would show up in this chart (from Wikipedia) but it looks like the only real change is wind and solar picking up share (which increases the need to load-follow with nuclear).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_France#/media/File:FR_ELEC_PROD_PERC.png