I especially liked the bit about AI art. I've found some AI images that have stopped me mid-scroll because they're so powerful. And yes maybe they're not "real art" in the traditional sense or whatever, but they've made me feel something and that's pretty cool.
The issue with plug-in hybrids is that while you are using electric power, you still have to lug a heavy and expensive engine/gas tank with you. And then, when on gas power, you have to lug a heavy battery around. Both modes have significant dead weight.
Worse yet, because the size of the battery must be limited in a plug in-hybrid, one can expect more frequent charge/discharge cycles, meaning that it will experience faster degradation. Fully electric makes a lot more sense, plug-in hybrids are a passing fad akin to those DVD/VHS combo machines that used to be popular.
Yeah, I've basically made the same argument many times for years. from an engineering point of view, it's very inelegant.
But if you forget about that inelegance, the end result is still better fuel economy and lower smog-forming emissions than pure gas cars, so it's still a step in the right direction, even if just transitional.
You have to lug around *something* for range no matter what. The first ~10-15 kWh of batteries gets almost all of your regular driving electrified. Then you need something for those times when you want to go more than 50-60 km in a day. You can slap in another ~50 kWh of batteries like in a full EV, or an engine and all its accoutrements like in a PHEV. And at the moment, an engine is cheaper and lighter than the extra batteries. Moreover, the batteries are currently the main constraint for getting more electrified vehicles out there, so it makes more sense to use the limited supply to make 5 Escape PHEVs than 1 Mach-E, or 8 Prius Primes/Ioniq PHEVs than 1 Model 3.
"if batteries and EV drivetrains keep getting cheaper and better" is the key part though. Engines (and all the parts that go with them) won't necessarily always be cheaper and lighter and more plentiful. As batteries (and their supply) get better, full EVs should start to make more sense.
I think hybrids will make sense for a long time, the EV infrastructure will have a hard time ramping up, it’s under strain already with only 10% of new cars being electric now, if that percentage increases rapidly to 90% there will be a shortage of charging stations and long lines and neighborhoods with lots of overnight charging will need new transformers and transmission lines which are in shortage now as is the GOES steel needed to make them. Since minerals for batteries and motors also are supply constrained the EVs won’t necessarily get cheaper. And with the vast majority of ICE vehicles still having decades of usage ahead of them and heavy vehicles not being available in EV means the petroleum infrastructure will continue to exist.
I think extreme scenarios (like overnight going to 90%) would be problematic, but with an orderly transition as the fleet turns over, I don't think it'd be too much of a problem. Most charging is at night when we're well below peak capacity of the grid, and most chargings are just a partial charge as few people fully drain their batteries every day.
I used to also be very skeptical about the mineral needs, but I now am more optimistic. There's some interesting stuff here:
I think the hardest scenario is if we decide to go full intermittent renewables on the grid and need a ton of sationary batteries. But if we go more nuclear and keep battery capacity for transportation, things look a lot smoother.
Making ICEs also requires a lot of energy and steel and minerals, we tend to forget about that. First EV ramp up does take more virgin ore, but once the fleet is more mature, you get a lot back from recycling batteries since the materials are not destroyed by use (unlike when we burn gasoline/diesel).
None of this is easy, of course, but it feels doable.
Have been spending a lot of time checking out pictures of Northern Quebec since you tweeted about the lakes :). I think I am due for a Canada trip!
The photo at the top of my 'about' page is from the lake near my parents' house:
https://www.libertyrpf.com/about
It’s beautiful, wow.
Thank you! It's a peaceful place, especially outside of mosquito season!
That was an excellent newsletter, TY.
I especially liked the bit about AI art. I've found some AI images that have stopped me mid-scroll because they're so powerful. And yes maybe they're not "real art" in the traditional sense or whatever, but they've made me feel something and that's pretty cool.
Thank you, I appreciate the kind words! 💚 🥃
If you feel something and like it, that's all that ultimately matter. Nobody can tell you that you're wrong for liking something.
I love your artwork and hope you keep publishing it here and on Reddit.
Thank you, much appreciated 💚 🥃
I've got hundreds and hundreds of things in the vault. I'll keep releasing some of my favorites over time 👍
The issue with plug-in hybrids is that while you are using electric power, you still have to lug a heavy and expensive engine/gas tank with you. And then, when on gas power, you have to lug a heavy battery around. Both modes have significant dead weight.
Worse yet, because the size of the battery must be limited in a plug in-hybrid, one can expect more frequent charge/discharge cycles, meaning that it will experience faster degradation. Fully electric makes a lot more sense, plug-in hybrids are a passing fad akin to those DVD/VHS combo machines that used to be popular.
Yeah, I've basically made the same argument many times for years. from an engineering point of view, it's very inelegant.
But if you forget about that inelegance, the end result is still better fuel economy and lower smog-forming emissions than pure gas cars, so it's still a step in the right direction, even if just transitional.
It will be a much longer transition than many EV fans are imagining/fantasizing.
I agree, but it'll likely be non-linear, so it's also likely to take those who do linear extrapolations by surprise.
You have to lug around *something* for range no matter what. The first ~10-15 kWh of batteries gets almost all of your regular driving electrified. Then you need something for those times when you want to go more than 50-60 km in a day. You can slap in another ~50 kWh of batteries like in a full EV, or an engine and all its accoutrements like in a PHEV. And at the moment, an engine is cheaper and lighter than the extra batteries. Moreover, the batteries are currently the main constraint for getting more electrified vehicles out there, so it makes more sense to use the limited supply to make 5 Escape PHEVs than 1 Mach-E, or 8 Prius Primes/Ioniq PHEVs than 1 Model 3.
"if batteries and EV drivetrains keep getting cheaper and better" is the key part though. Engines (and all the parts that go with them) won't necessarily always be cheaper and lighter and more plentiful. As batteries (and their supply) get better, full EVs should start to make more sense.
I think hybrids will make sense for a long time, the EV infrastructure will have a hard time ramping up, it’s under strain already with only 10% of new cars being electric now, if that percentage increases rapidly to 90% there will be a shortage of charging stations and long lines and neighborhoods with lots of overnight charging will need new transformers and transmission lines which are in shortage now as is the GOES steel needed to make them. Since minerals for batteries and motors also are supply constrained the EVs won’t necessarily get cheaper. And with the vast majority of ICE vehicles still having decades of usage ahead of them and heavy vehicles not being available in EV means the petroleum infrastructure will continue to exist.
I think extreme scenarios (like overnight going to 90%) would be problematic, but with an orderly transition as the fleet turns over, I don't think it'd be too much of a problem. Most charging is at night when we're well below peak capacity of the grid, and most chargings are just a partial charge as few people fully drain their batteries every day.
I used to also be very skeptical about the mineral needs, but I now am more optimistic. There's some interesting stuff here:
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-against-evs-are
I think the hardest scenario is if we decide to go full intermittent renewables on the grid and need a ton of sationary batteries. But if we go more nuclear and keep battery capacity for transportation, things look a lot smoother.
Making ICEs also requires a lot of energy and steel and minerals, we tend to forget about that. First EV ramp up does take more virgin ore, but once the fleet is more mature, you get a lot back from recycling batteries since the materials are not destroyed by use (unlike when we burn gasoline/diesel).
None of this is easy, of course, but it feels doable.