190: Apple Chip Shortage, TSMC & Sony, Ben Thompson 2.0, Michael Mauboussin, Cloudflare's Share, Microsoft + Nvidia's 530bn Parameters AI Model, and Let it Be
190: Apple Chip Shortage, TSMC & Sony, Ben Thompson 2.0, Michael Mauboussin, Cloudflare's Share, Microsoft + Nvidia's 530bn Parameters AI Model, and Let it Be
Regarding Texas Instruments, are you aware if the bottleneck is due to a process input from a 3rd party supplier, or are the fabs running at 100% capacity and that just isn't enough to satisfy demand?
There's no lack of headlines in the media about the shortage, but specific details are hard to come by.
Good question, I don't know. I also know they don't fab 100% of their stuff, and they have so many SKUs that they're not fabbing everything all the time.. They probably have runs and build up inventory that is supposed to last for X amount of time, but when there's sudden big shocks in demand, they can possibly run out and it takes a while to re-fab new inventory..?
There was a famous economist who used to be known for talking about how important games are - I can't remember the name or find the quote, but I think he passed away recently.
Video games are useful because you can get thousands of reps in on a simulation to understand how something works. A game that features an auction mechanic will teach you a lot more than a textbook on auction theory alone. Same goes for a game with a good stock market simulation or economic simulation or historical simulation.
A football player recently explained that players today conceptually understand strategy much earlier and faster because they grew up playing Madden, and also you see much more optimal strategy today at the end of games because players have played every scenario thousands of times in a video game whereas before people made dumb mistakes because they would so rarely encounter it real life (a specific example would be today players often down on purpose near the goal line to run out the clock, instead of scoring a touchdown and giving the ball back to the other team which would be a mistake).
They are also useful to study. You can't easily measure labor output in most environments but you can in some sports, and you can see how well theory matches high stakes real life outcomes.
Absolutely. I agree with all that. I just think there can also be downsides, and as with most things, the trade offs that maximize the upsides and minimize the downsides should be sought.
Regarding Texas Instruments, are you aware if the bottleneck is due to a process input from a 3rd party supplier, or are the fabs running at 100% capacity and that just isn't enough to satisfy demand?
There's no lack of headlines in the media about the shortage, but specific details are hard to come by.
Good question, I don't know. I also know they don't fab 100% of their stuff, and they have so many SKUs that they're not fabbing everything all the time.. They probably have runs and build up inventory that is supposed to last for X amount of time, but when there's sudden big shocks in demand, they can possibly run out and it takes a while to re-fab new inventory..?
Thanks, I guess like most things the answer is complex as you point out.
The best I've read on the chip shortage to date is The Verge article you linked maybe a month or two back.
There was a famous economist who used to be known for talking about how important games are - I can't remember the name or find the quote, but I think he passed away recently.
Video games are useful because you can get thousands of reps in on a simulation to understand how something works. A game that features an auction mechanic will teach you a lot more than a textbook on auction theory alone. Same goes for a game with a good stock market simulation or economic simulation or historical simulation.
A football player recently explained that players today conceptually understand strategy much earlier and faster because they grew up playing Madden, and also you see much more optimal strategy today at the end of games because players have played every scenario thousands of times in a video game whereas before people made dumb mistakes because they would so rarely encounter it real life (a specific example would be today players often down on purpose near the goal line to run out the clock, instead of scoring a touchdown and giving the ball back to the other team which would be a mistake).
They are also useful to study. You can't easily measure labor output in most environments but you can in some sports, and you can see how well theory matches high stakes real life outcomes.
Absolutely. I agree with all that. I just think there can also be downsides, and as with most things, the trade offs that maximize the upsides and minimize the downsides should be sought.