Two great quotes -- "On most things, I’m kind of confused and can see some good and bad points to multiple sides (btw, nothing says there’s only going to be two sides to every issue — why should this complex world be so two-dimensional? Reality doesn’t care about making it convenient for humans to play their us-vs-them tribal games… things can be a lot more complex than that)." and "As someone who has been around the block a bit when it comes to these types of forecasts, I can say that they’re not only *always* wrong, but they’re always hilariously wrong." That said, I think there is a strategy to predicting often, loudly and against consensus. People forget when you are wrong, but when you get it right (albeit by blind chance) you look like a genius. :)
Yeah, I think the two main strategies for forecasts are to stick to something that nobody can accuse you of anything with, super boring, conservative, whatever sounds the most plausible and linear..
The other strategy is what you say: Just throw stuff against the wall, and hopefully you hit a bullseye and they forget about the rest of the failed predictions and you live off the glory of that one great call forever.
Let me know what you think of the pod. I have no idea if anyone will like it, but I had fun doing it, Jim is a great conversationalist.
On a similar line to being boring... How much time (and money) does it take to completely rehab your image? After the recent spat of negative Bill Gates news, I've been seeing more Bill Gates ads that portray him as the goofy grandpa that loves to give his money to good causes. Most people today seem surprised when they hear about Bill Gates the monopolist!
Two great quotes -- "On most things, I’m kind of confused and can see some good and bad points to multiple sides (btw, nothing says there’s only going to be two sides to every issue — why should this complex world be so two-dimensional? Reality doesn’t care about making it convenient for humans to play their us-vs-them tribal games… things can be a lot more complex than that)." and "As someone who has been around the block a bit when it comes to these types of forecasts, I can say that they’re not only *always* wrong, but they’re always hilariously wrong." That said, I think there is a strategy to predicting often, loudly and against consensus. People forget when you are wrong, but when you get it right (albeit by blind chance) you look like a genius. :)
Looking forward to the podcast drop!
Yeah, I think the two main strategies for forecasts are to stick to something that nobody can accuse you of anything with, super boring, conservative, whatever sounds the most plausible and linear..
The other strategy is what you say: Just throw stuff against the wall, and hopefully you hit a bullseye and they forget about the rest of the failed predictions and you live off the glory of that one great call forever.
Let me know what you think of the pod. I have no idea if anyone will like it, but I had fun doing it, Jim is a great conversationalist.
On a similar line to being boring... How much time (and money) does it take to completely rehab your image? After the recent spat of negative Bill Gates news, I've been seeing more Bill Gates ads that portray him as the goofy grandpa that loves to give his money to good causes. Most people today seem surprised when they hear about Bill Gates the monopolist!
It's the Buffett line: It takes a lifetime to build a reputation but a moment to destroy it...
Very asymmetrical. I'm sure it's not so much about the money as about "quality of life" type issues...
Funny that you said “nothing says there’s only going to be two sides to every issue” right after putting up a 2x2 matrix. ;)
*insert Breaking Bad gif of 'You Caught me' scene*
But seriously, saying that it doesn't apply to *every issue* doesn't mean it doesn't apply to some issues ;)
I think in this case, a kind of exhaustive logical categorization, it makes more sense than with more specific real-world situations.