266: Buffett Should Buy Texas Instruments Instead of HP, Berkshire + Microsoft Alternate Timeline, UK & South-Korea Nuclear U-Turns, Nvidia, and Bojack
266: Buffett Should Buy Texas Instruments Instead of HP, Berkshire + Microsoft Alternate Timeline, UK & South-Korea Nuclear U-Turns, Nvidia, and Bojack
I have seen communities built in Slack in the past (lucky they migrated away from it) and Discord. Slack has a 10k message limit on free communities, and messages are invisible (do not appear in search or you cannot navigate through them) after. It seems 10k limit is a lot, but in fact it is not. This is quite a huge technical limitation which makes Slack objectively worse IMHO.
This prediction chart really made me think; why do we even bother to do long term projections? It’s just fake comfort of knowing and thinking about where things are headed. Plus, I imagine an employee just amending his excel sheet a bit. ;)
Pretty interesting counterpoint to these projections for lower renewable energy costs into the future. At the very least, I hadn't heard the argument before.
This paragraph from the letter is a good summary of this particular argument.
"It is no coincidence that the proliferation of renewable energy occurred during a decade of abundant cheap energy and abundant cheap capital. As both resources become scarcer and more expensive, the inherent limitation of renewable energy (i.e., its significantly worse EROEI) will come to the fore. Our view is extremely out-of-consensus. In fact, most investors believe low energy prices have severely discouraged the adoption of renewable energy. When we ask what impact rising energy prices will have on renewables, the vast majority argue that higher energy prices will help renewables by making them more cost competitive. Most investors are under the impression that much higher energy prices will push renewables “into the money”--- that is renewables will become competitive for the first time versus higher priced hydrocarbons. This completely ignores the fact that energy itself makes up the single largest cost component for both wind and solar. Instead of making renewable energy more cost competitive, higher energy prices will simply drive up the costs. Renewables today remain “out of the money” and higher energy prices will never be able to push renewables “into the money."
Organically produced content and discussions will be crucial for the success of the discord community. Considering how subject driven the discord platform is (i.e there can be several themed chats in a channel) - I think you are right to say that defining its purpose will be instrumental. I assume you already have a decent (or better) understanding of what drives us, your readers, here - so I trust you will identify the right themes that will spark discussion and curiosity.
I have seen communities built in Slack in the past (lucky they migrated away from it) and Discord. Slack has a 10k message limit on free communities, and messages are invisible (do not appear in search or you cannot navigate through them) after. It seems 10k limit is a lot, but in fact it is not. This is quite a huge technical limitation which makes Slack objectively worse IMHO.
This prediction chart really made me think; why do we even bother to do long term projections? It’s just fake comfort of knowing and thinking about where things are headed. Plus, I imagine an employee just amending his excel sheet a bit. ;)
I recommend this 4Q letter
https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2021.Q4%20Commentary/2021.Q4%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
Pretty interesting counterpoint to these projections for lower renewable energy costs into the future. At the very least, I hadn't heard the argument before.
This paragraph from the letter is a good summary of this particular argument.
"It is no coincidence that the proliferation of renewable energy occurred during a decade of abundant cheap energy and abundant cheap capital. As both resources become scarcer and more expensive, the inherent limitation of renewable energy (i.e., its significantly worse EROEI) will come to the fore. Our view is extremely out-of-consensus. In fact, most investors believe low energy prices have severely discouraged the adoption of renewable energy. When we ask what impact rising energy prices will have on renewables, the vast majority argue that higher energy prices will help renewables by making them more cost competitive. Most investors are under the impression that much higher energy prices will push renewables “into the money”--- that is renewables will become competitive for the first time versus higher priced hydrocarbons. This completely ignores the fact that energy itself makes up the single largest cost component for both wind and solar. Instead of making renewable energy more cost competitive, higher energy prices will simply drive up the costs. Renewables today remain “out of the money” and higher energy prices will never be able to push renewables “into the money."
Organically produced content and discussions will be crucial for the success of the discord community. Considering how subject driven the discord platform is (i.e there can be several themed chats in a channel) - I think you are right to say that defining its purpose will be instrumental. I assume you already have a decent (or better) understanding of what drives us, your readers, here - so I trust you will identify the right themes that will spark discussion and curiosity.